Thursday, February 08, 2007

Paddles, CLEAR! ...............THUMP!

That about covers it - stock cardiac arrest. Having seen this movie so many times before over the past 5 years, I'm frankly too disgusted to post much more. And where are Ballmer or Liddell during this latest meltdown? Are they responding to the negative Barron's article credited with the most recent selloff? Nope. Are they addressing the seemingly endless barrage of negative Vista coverage and reviews - including many from sources you'd expect to be sympathetic to PCs and MSFT? Nope. I mean, even with a $500M launch, you just can't buy publicity like this, or this, or this, or this, or this, or - well, you get the picture. Are they putting any public pressure on Apple to get off their asses and get iTunes or indeed ANY of Apple's software Vista-ready in a timely manner? Nope. Are they reaffirming Vista sales in light of numerous articles in the media talking about the lack of interest? Nope. Are they doing anything to reverse the negative perception and concern caused by stories like this, that are making their way throughout the market and the blogospehere? Nope. Why not? Well, apparently they're too busy running the business so badly that all this is the norm rather than the exception.

Will the stock likely bounce short-term? Sure, it's way oversold. Once that's over, will there be any respite from the massive market-lagging performance we've seen for most of the past 5 years without major changes? Absolutely not. Message to MSFT's Board: when do you folks plan on doing your job on behalf of shareholders and making some tough decisions to finally reverse this comedy of errors and continued downward spiral? Keep doing nothing, and maybe this scenario might not be so laughable after all...

Update: Paul Kedrosky does some historical analysis on MSFT stock following major Windows launches:


  • FYI, I accidentally deleted a reasonable comment while cleaning out the other daily trash. Sorry - I was juggling several other things at the time. Feel free to repost. At the risk of paraphrasing it incorrectly, it had something to do with whether I wanted to provide an intrinsic value estimate for MSFT, and words to the effect that was I naive enough to expect Vista reviews would all be positive. FWIW, the short answer is no (for various reasons that I can detail if interested) and no (I fully expected lots of negative articles -just not the overwhelming avalanche of them balanced against "positive" reviews that conclude with a ringing endorsement like "it grows on you eventually".)

    By Blogger MSFTextrememakeover, at 8:07 PM  

  • To be fair, Steve and Chris will have formal meetings (called "Microsoft Strategic Update") with analysts this coming week.

    Yes, I lost a lot too in this sell-off, but I feel you are asking too much for Steve and Chris to respond to any negative news report.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:10 PM  

  • "Steve and Chris will have formal meetings (called "Microsoft Strategic Update") with analysts this coming week."

    Yes, that was mentioned on the CC before any of this arose and isn't a response to it. That said, we'll see what they say. Also, while having Liddell there is good, putting Ballmer in front of financial analysts is invariably a recipe for disaster (generally and for the stock). You'd think that after the last fiasco, Ballmer would have let Liddell go alone. Hopefully, Chris can keep a muzzle on him - but that's doubtful.

    "but I feel you are asking too much for Steve and Chris to respond to any negative news report."

    To be clearer, I'm not asking them to respond to any negative news reports. I am asking them to respond to widespread and growing concern about Vista - just about the most important launch for MSFT ever - which is permeating the market, and at this point causing a near-record for sequential daily negative closes. I cannot imagine another top-tier tech company who's CEO and CFO wouldn't have been out pounding the pavement under similar circumstances.

    By Blogger MSFTextrememakeover, at 10:35 AM  

  • HOLY HELL!!!!

    Did you read Ballmers comments at the analyst meeting today? He's now moved into "active destruction" mode on our stock. I think he's out to personally tank every last share.


    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:53 PM  

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