Media Roundup

1) Mark Cuban wades in:

• Why Yahoo should say Yes to MicroSoft
  
  

(I respect Cuban, but he must not own MSFT shares)

2) Review of various integration scenarios:

• How To Put Together MicroHoo
  
  

(#1 role model: HP/Compaq. Um, didn't that one initially screw up so badly that the stock nosedived and the original CEO got the boot? On second thought...)

3) Others, besides YHOO's owners, who stand to make a killing:

• Microsoft, Yahoo bankers eye $1 billion payday
  
  

(MSFT shareholders get to supply the blood)

4) An absolutely scathing review of MSFT:

• No joy for Microsoft shareholders in Yahoo
  
  

Excerpt (bolding mine):

Ask investors what they think of Microsoft's innovative juices. The company's stock market value is huge – $280-billion (U.S.) – but it goes for 15 times earnings. Compare that to a far less profitable information company like Thomson Corp., which has no true monopolies (and is a part-owner of this newspaper). At a 10th the market cap, Thomson changes hands for 21 times forward earnings.

Why? We would argue that it's at least in part because Thomson is much more careful with shareholders' money. Thomson investors are rarely diluted by acquisitions or by squandered investments. It's hard to argue with millions of investors.

(Hmm..less "careful with shareholder money"? √ Constantly diluting us by "acquisitions or by squandered investments"? √√ Arguing with millions of investors? √√√).

5) The most succinct but insightful comment I've seen yet on this market space. Ballmer would be well advised to pay attention to the same input:

• Yahoo Vet Millard: Microsoft Deal Was "Inevitable" (MSFT, YHOO, MSO)
  
  

Excerpt (bolding mine):

Yahoo lost sight of who they are and who their customers are. Yahoo's perception is that their only competitor is Google. But 95 percent of their revenue comes from advertising -- so their competitors are really the broadcast TV networks. They think they're in the search game,when they should really be in the brand advertising game.

(Oh, and hire this person)

6) Analyst Trip Chowdry provides some comic relief with a fantasy conspiracy theory worthy of Oliver Stone:

• Analyst: Microsoft's Yahoo bid may be fake
  
  

(If only Ballmer were that strategic and cunning. He's neither.)

7) The sad reality:

• Analyst: 70% Chance For MSFT-YHOO Deal
  
  

(Near 100% chance MSFT shareholders lose money either way though)

8) Finally, the no-brainer trade now that MSFT management have effectively told us they've revisited the future and that what appeared to be incredibly bright initially, turned out to be just the approaching headlights of a Mack truck traveling full tilt with glamour tags reading:

• GOOG
  
  

(Cue sound of air horn)

Meanwhile, another selloff for MSFT on 2X average daily volume:

 

Update:

Worth a read...

• An Open Letter to Steve Ballmer

Excerpt:

I know you want to make your mark on Microsoft, but you should stop trying to be all things to all people. Take a tip on focus from that other Steve.

Dear Steve,

 

Let's talk over this Yahoo! (YHOO) thing before you move ahead. It's a profoundly bad idea.

Also:

• Another Reason MSFT Won't Raise YHOO Offer: Capital Research

(Some possibly good news here. Especially since Capital Research is the largest institutional shareholder of both companies, and therefore has much more potentially at risk on the MSFT side)

Update #2:

More... um, "praise" for the deal:

• Would buying Yahoo be a mistake for Microsoft?

Excerpt:

He is especially frustrated by Gates's pursuit of his white whale when Microsoft has bigger fish to fry, like parrying the challenge from free operating systems like Linux; adapting to the migration of computing from the desktop to the cloud, and competing with Apple as it insinuates its hardware and software into people's living rooms, cars and telephones....

 

"Just now, when they've got momentum, they're going to crush it with this terrible deal," Mowrey said. "I think Microsoft is worth a lot less today than I thought it was worth yesterday."

• Shareholders Want Microsoft-Yahoo Deal Done -- Pronto

Excerpt:

"This is totally insane," says Shareholder Value Management analyst Jeff Embersits. "There's no way Yahoo's worth $44 billion. Period. [Yahoo Management] should fall on their knees, kiss the ground and go home and buy Porsches."

("Insane" seems to be popping up a lot when describing this deal.)